March 21 - 26

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March 21 - 26

Post  Levaz on Sat Mar 20, 2010 8:39 pm

We have a nice short for the EURUSD with an entry at just around 1.3600, but it may not go that high. We anticipate a test of the 1.3550, maybe as high as 1.3585. Of course, we could be wrong, as there seems to be divergence in the ERUGBP, so we must be careful.

Since we are already in the USDCHF long, which is the SAME trade as the EURUSD short, there is not much point in over exposing the account to twice the risk. We still feel that the long term target for the USDCHF is 1.0800 to 1.1000. As a matter of fact, we got another entry when the market dipped down to the 1.0600 area (he he). The stop loss being the same at 1.0400. Once again, we feel that we have solid support in the 1.0500 area, and that area should not be breached unless some really bad US data comes about. This, although not impossible, is currently unlikely - being that Greece is facing a 15 - 25 Billion crisis in the next 45 - 60 days. Also, towards the end of last week, their credit swaps rates for Greek debt started climbing again, and 300 basis points is the critical area, above which it is pretty much the point of no return. Also, if they start talking with the IMF - there are several BAD implications for the Euro.

Let us see what happens.

Levaz
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Levaz

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Re: March 21 - 26

Post  Levaz on Sun Mar 21, 2010 5:14 pm

IF (and only IF) you do not mind over exposing your account, here are some trades for tonight.

EURUSD short at open (better to wait for a higher 1.3580 1.3600, if possible), SL 1.3700 TP 1.3450
GBPUSD short at open (or better entry at 1.5142 'ish) SL 1.5400 TP 1.4800

We are already long on USDCHF which is the exact duplicate of the above trades.
If the USD does garner strength this week, we will add positions using our existing profits from this trade alone and manipulate the Stop loss for each trade so that we at least get a small profit. We expect to get some opportunities around the 1.0750 - 1.0800 area. We wait for the market to fight back, and when they run out of steam, we buy some more!!

Those of you still on the GBPJPY trade, we see more downside, so lock in 50 - 80 pips of profits and let it ride to the TP of 133 or even lower. If any of you are in this trade, please let us know so that we can guide you on when to add positions, IF you want to do so.

Pretty much all Yen crosses are headed down - AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP and USD. so take your pick, and a few pips (20 - 50) and get out quick. The Yen is a very volatile pair. The thinking is that now is year end for many Japanese companies, and they have to liquidate their foreign currency holdings, (which are used for carry trades and hedging their production costs) and more importantly, they need Yen to pay taxes (BIG BIG amounts) and year end dividends.

Levaz
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Re: March 21 - 26

Post  Levaz on Tue Mar 23, 2010 7:08 pm

No trades today - we are going to watch for the UK budget, which has caused all our indicators to disagree with each other, probably due to excessive market positioning for tomorrows budget release, and also the results of the two day summit regarding the agreement to Bail-out Greece.

Be very careful guys, wait for the news / announcement and then make your trades. Don't jump in at the first movement. There is likely to be interventions from various angles - but the vultures are betting on both the GBP and Euro going south. We should be happy enough to ride their coat tails.
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Re: March 21 - 26

Post  Levaz on Wed Mar 24, 2010 7:26 pm

FYI, the GBPUSD Sundae trade was quite a treat - 250 pips and then some!!
I really like it when they come so easy with minimal DD (less than 20 pips)

Anyways, here are some trades for today.

USDCHF long at 1.0670 SL 1.0500 TP 1.0760
USDCAD long at 1.0206 SL 1.0140 TP 1.0300
EURJPY long at 122.60 SL 122.20 TP 123.37

Again, pick one of the above trades as they are pretty much the same trade.
Stay out of the last trade, if you really don't want to touch that pair.

We believe that the US Dollar has found favor again, not of its own, but against Euro weakness. This may last a few days or a couple of weeks. Once the Greek debt issue is settled, it is likely to pick up steam again, unless of course, we have another crisis at that time - ha ha.
The "USD favor" is risk aversion, and also for the first time in a while, the carry trade currency has shifted back to the Yen, which lifts a lot of pressure from mega investors to keep the USD down so that they dont get screwed on their investments.

The EURJPY gathered steam yesterday as both the UK and Japanese budgets were released. That momentum is likely to continue for a day or two, and so the Euro gained against the GBP which was hammered by the USD, not from Euro strength. The EURJPY pair was also aided by the big move up by the USD, generally big moves in the Yen crosses apply across the board. Check all the Yn crosses, and they will reflect similar movements, perhaps not in pips, but relatively stronger than usual or as in the case of the EURJPY - case a (temporary???) retrace.

Also, note that around these levels, the Euro is considered very low.

Levaz

PS - Since we had already achieved our 15% target, we are trading very small lots just for the sake of following the signals.

Also, please note that the returns will be skewed as we are testing a couple of other systems on the same DEMO account that is shown in the performance link.
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Re: March 21 - 26

Post  Levaz on Thu Mar 25, 2010 7:10 pm

No new trades today.

We are well into the (new) trend, and there have gone too far along for us to hop onto them.

It is now best to wait for a retrace on almost all majors. Risk aversion is not something that lasts, as it is a temporary flight to safety. Once the dust settles, we will be in a better position to make safer decisions.

The stock markets do NOT like to stay down for long. They HAVE to keep moving up to keep the illusion of growing wealth. These moves are just enough to scam the late comers out of their money, and give the real players a better entry position.

Let us see next week. May be even tomorrow, as they need money to spend on the weekends Razz
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Re: March 21 - 26

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