April 11 - April 16

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April 11 - April 16

Post  Levaz on Sun Apr 11, 2010 6:13 pm

I must apologize guys, as the motherboard on my machine burned out over the weekend. I have been trying to recover my data and my software. Please bear with me for a couple of days until I get things back to normal on my end.

Until then, I have to ensure that my MA clients are being taken care of.

Levaz
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April 12

Post  Levaz on Mon Apr 12, 2010 8:11 pm

I have managed to get my systems up and running.

There aren't many recommended trades today as the markets are undecided due to the Greek nightmare. There is bound to be volatility until this matter is properly kicked down the road. I say this because the bail out is NOT a solution to the problem - it is a band-aid fix.

You may want to consider the following trades:

GBPCHF short 1.6334 SL 1.6425 TP 1.6200

Try and get into the trade after is has past the entry point and is on its way down.

Levaz
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Re: April 11 - April 16

Post  Levaz on Tue Apr 13, 2010 10:23 am

We have a potential good long term trend trade building - GBP has broken the resistance.

GBPUSD long at 1.5335 SL 1.5200 TP 1.5535

There is bound to be a quick test of the low, and we expect that to stop around 1.5218, however, some of you may want to extend that SL to 1.5150/80 if you want to give it some more room.

We have identified a TP of about 200 pips, but if we are correct, there should be a lot more to collect. So you may want to close 50% of your order at the TP, and let the remaining 50% of the order run some more. If you choose to do this, please move the SL to lock in about 20 - 50 pips on the remaining order.

Levaz
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Re: April 11 - April 16

Post  Levaz on Tue Apr 13, 2010 10:47 am

Having a closer look at the 4H charts, down from the Weekly and Daily charts, I am wondering if we can get a better entry with a lot less grief around 1.5260 area,

Keep that in mind, if you are more patient than I am.

We have placed our Buy Limit at 1.5335, however, we may add a similar position at 1.5260 AFTER the move down is over and comes back.

Levaz

Levaz wrote:We have a potential good long term trend trade building - GBP has broken the resistance.

GBPUSD long at 1.5335 SL 1.5200 TP 1.5535

There is bound to be a quick test of the low, and we expect that to stop around 1.5218, however, some of you may want to extend that SL to 1.5150/80 if you want to give it some more room.

We have identified a TP of about 200 pips, but if we are correct, there should be a lot more to collect. So you may want to close 50% of your order at the TP, and let the remaining 50% of the order run some more. If you choose to do this, please move the SL to lock in about 20 - 50 pips on the remaining order.

Levaz
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Re: April 11 - April 16

Post  Levaz on Tue Apr 13, 2010 7:18 pm

We missed the GBPCHF entry by barely a pip or so, but the move looks like it will continue.

Let us revise that order
GBPCHF short at 1.6279 SL 1.6425 TP 1.6179

For those of you that feel you may miss another opportunity, you can short it at current prices IF you see it moving away from our entry once again.

Another good possibility is
USDJPY short at 93.20 SL 93.80 TP 92.20
or you can get in right now, as it is higher than our preferred entry point
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Re: April 11 - April 16

Post  Levaz on Tue Apr 13, 2010 7:31 pm

Here is an interesting trade for you guys:

AUDCAD - this pair has been ranging between 0.9200 to 0.9500 at the extremes for the past two months. Most of the bandwidth is between 0.9260 and 0.9420.

So here is the set up:

Place SELL orders at 0.9380 SL 0.9450 TP 0.9265
Place BUY orders at 0.9260 SL 0.9200 TP 0.9375

That is 100 - 110 pips every three or four days. For doing nothing!! Smile

Note that the long term bias is moving down ever so slightly, which simply means that all things remaining as they same, we should expect this dance to continue but with lower highs and lower lows. Both are commodity currencies, one dependent on the US/Oil and the other against the Yen/Minerals. Both currencies were rather sheltered from the GFC as well, and both were leaders to emerge from the GFC with relatively strong economic indicators.

Let us see how long we can make this play.

Levaz

PS - I will not be able to demonstrate these trades on my TadawulFX account that demo's all the trades above, as this pair is not offered by Tadawul (or I could not find it on the list).
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April 14

Post  Levaz on Wed Apr 14, 2010 7:38 pm

Markets are very choppy, and close to or near recent support / resistance levels.

Let them demonstrate where they are headed and then we can make a trade.

No new trades today

Levaz
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April 15 - midday

Post  Levaz on Thu Apr 15, 2010 10:44 am

We may have an interesting trade

EURUSD short at 1.3590 SL 1.3700 TP 1.3300

You may try to get in a little higher around 1.3625 or more, but with all the issues at hand, it is highly unlikely that this will happen, but NOT impossible.

While the same MAY apply for the GBPUSD, we have reason to believe that the GBP will ride higher against the USD on the strength of EURGBP sales. Also, the Middle East is a traditional GBP buyer in times of Risk currency turmoil. The GBP is, after all, the 4th or the 5th most valuable currency in the world - ONLY in terms of exchange rates.

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Re: April 11 - April 16

Post  Levaz on Thu Apr 15, 2010 11:26 am

IF the below trade does get picked up, we are going to compound the earnings as we expect the run down to be sharp and quick.

This means that we are going to immediately re-invest our profits ONLY into the next trade while the first one is still running.

Our first anticipated point of compounding will be at 100 pips of profit.

So if our first trade is 0.50 lots picked up at 1.3590, then we we have $500 of profit at 100 pips.
We enter another 0.50 lots at 1.3490 with a SL of 100 pips, and we move the SL on the first order to lock in 10 - 20 pips. Therefore, our total exposure on 1 standard lot is only $400.

We do the same at 1.3390, but now with 1 std lot. with 100 pip SL. We also move our SL on both the earlier trades to 1.3470. So we have locked in $700 in profit and our overall risk from capital is only $ 300.

If all goes well, we are sitting on $ 3150 ion total profit, technically based on one single 0.50 lot order.

Please do not exceed your normal 2% risk per trade rule, as I could always be wrrooonnnnggggg!!!!!!

Levaz

Levaz

Levaz wrote:We may have an interesting trade

EURUSD short at 1.3590 SL 1.3700 TP 1.3300

You may try to get in a little higher around 1.3625 or more, but with all the issues at hand, it is highly unlikely that this will happen, but NOT impossible.

While the same MAY apply for the GBPUSD, we have reason to believe that the GBP will ride higher against the USD on the strength of EURGBP sales. Also, the Middle East is a traditional GBP buyer in times of Risk currency turmoil. The GBP is, after all, the 4th or the 5th most valuable currency in the world - ONLY in terms of exchange rates.

Levaz
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Re: April 11 - April 16

Post  Levaz on Thu Apr 15, 2010 12:37 pm

We have revised our entry to 1.3575. SL and TP remain the same. The market has already climbed as high as 1.3584 in the past couple of hours, and we do not want to be left out this time. So we are willing to increase our risk exposure to ensure that we DO get picked up.

We just may enter at 1.3550 if we feel that the consolidation does not carry enough strength.

You do not have to follow suit, but we missed several "good" trades on this pair already. So, we have decided to trade a little more aggressively with this trade.

Levaz
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Re: April 11 - April 16

Post  Levaz on Thu Apr 15, 2010 6:58 pm

This signal is still valid. As mentioned, we have already got an entry at 1.3570 and we have another one ready, just in case, the pair moves up a little, at 1.3615. You guys don't need to make both trades, pick one and let it be.


Levaz wrote:We may have an interesting trade

EURUSD short at 1.3590 SL 1.3700 TP 1.3300

You may try to get in a little higher around 1.3625 or more, but with all the issues at hand, it is highly unlikely that this will happen, but NOT impossible.

Levaz

If you are not already in trade, then I suggest 1.3590 - the original entry point. The SL and TP settings do not change, no matter where you choose to enter.

We may have to wait for the anticipated move - up to 3 - 5 days. So please be patient.
If you want to use a trailing stop, I suggest at least 50 - 80 pips, just so that you do not get closed out too early. We are not using a Trailing Stop.

We have also entered the following trade, which you don't have to as it is a duplicate of the above trade.

USDCHF long 1.0559 SL 1.0400 TP 1.0750 (or 1.0900)

Also, as mentioned earlier, we do expect GBP to at least hold steady or grow strong from EURGBP meltdown. So you have possibilities to make some shorts there as well.

Levaz
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Re: April 11 - April 16

Post  Levaz on Fri Apr 16, 2010 11:24 am

We have placed out second Smurf order to short at 1.3480.
EURUSD short at 1.3480 SL 1.3550 TP 1.3300
Stop loss on the first order has been moved to 1.3550.
So our risk now is only 70 pips (second order) - 20 pips (profits locked from first order) = 50 pips.

Next compounding at 1.3380 with SL at 1.3450 (for all three orders)
So we will have:
Order #1 at 1.3570 -------- 120 pips locked in profit
Order #2 at 1.3480 -------- 30 pips locked in profit
Order #3 at 1.3380 -------- 70 pips exposed as risk.
Potential net gain, IF third order closes at SL - 80 pips

If we get to 1.3300 as targeted, we should all be pretty happy with ourselves.

Levaz
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April 18

Post  Levaz on Sun Apr 18, 2010 6:16 pm

We are already in trade, and it is moving in our direction.

Therefore, there is no need to over expose the accounts. Besides, we have already achieved our targets, so we will play it safe, and hold on to our hard earned profits.

Levaz
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Re: April 11 - April 16

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