May 17 - May 23 2010

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May 17 - May 23 2010

Post  Levaz on Sun May 16, 2010 3:10 pm

Wow, we had the total break down of the Euro last week. We now have 1.1800 as the next long term target, eventually 1.1000 by the end of the year. Whenever we have such large single directional movements, the risk is the markets seeking equilibrium, and heading back to the 50day moving average. That point lies at around 1.2800 -1.2900.

Our trade for today Sunday May 17 is:

EURUSD short at 1.2450 SL 1.2500 TP 1.2250

Once again, we have a very narrow Stop Loss to prevent any surprise retraces. Also, It is highly recommended that you wait till Japan session opens at around 8PM EST to see where the Stock markets open. If the markets open lower, then we have a good chance that the Euro is headed further down. If we have the markets open higher, it will improve the chances of our orders being picked up at the higher entry levels. We need to watch the action on the EURJPY as that is the key for the Asian session, and that typically leads all the other pairs when there is RISK sentiment in the air.

One point to note is that the Euro is at the critical low of 2008, so we can expect a decent level of support. This may also cause a bounce back to the daily moving average lines.

Levaz
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Re: May 17 - May 23 2010

Post  Levaz on Sun May 16, 2010 6:33 pm

Be careful with the above trade - everyone and their uncle is currently short the Euro. Again we stress the small Stop Loss, as we need to be very careful, right about now.

The death of the Euro has, perhaps, been overplayed. It will still go down, due to the "Quantitative Easing" of recent times, but the chances of its total collapse are just as much as the Dollar fears a couple of years ago.

Anyway, here is a potentially good trade:

AUDNZD long at 1.2533 (or current prices) SL 1.2375 (just below the lows) TP 1.2800
Please use a 100 pip trailing stop, as this is a very volatile pair.

Levaz
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Re: May 17 - May 23 2010

Post  Levaz on Mon May 17, 2010 7:19 pm

The last couple of hours of today's trading (May 17) showed quite a comeback of all the risk pairs.
None of them closed higher than the open or the established high of the day. Typically, this would reflect an exhaustion candle, and the start of a comeback (or at the very least a consolidation) of sorts.

I would prefer to short the Euro at higher than 1.2900'ish and the GBP at higher than 1.5000. There is an off chance that we may actually see retraces even higher than those numbers, this is only because of the law of averages. However, none of the issues have been resolved, and they have only been postponed by 2 - 3 years.

EURGBP short at 0.8630 SL 0.8650 TP .8557 (Note the very very small Stop Loss, just in case)

FYI, I am shorting the EURUSD at around 1.2400, but it is a VERY risky trade (so I do not recommend it to you), as there is a potential for a comeback, however, if I get stopped out at 100 pips, I will simply re-enter my trade when the Euro comes back later at the Stop loss point ONLY AFTER it goes AT LEAST 50 pips over my SL point. So I would need the Euro to cross at least 1.2550 once I have been stopped out at 1.2500 and enter my NEW short at 1.2500 and get my money back.

Levaz
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May 18 2010

Post  Levaz on Tue May 18, 2010 9:15 pm

Sorry for the delay today, was out at dinner with the family, and just got back.

We are going to trade the pre-established ranges, as we seems to be in a sort of consolidation period for now, barring any stupid moves / remarks by the European politicians (such as the naked-short ban enacted in Germany today - which by the way, cannot be enforced as all a German has to do is place the order from a US/Far East broker to by pass that law!!).

EURGBP short at 0.8582 SL 8620 TP 0.8510

Here is a long shot, as in we have to wait for it to come to us

GBPCHF short at 1.6650 SL 1.6900 TP 1.6000

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Re: May 17 - May 23 2010

Post  Levaz on Wed May 19, 2010 11:06 am

EURGBP is in play, so far the resistance has held at 0.8600. The conflicting announcements coming out of Europe are not helping. If you guys see this post on time, try and lock in some profits (20 pips or more) as this will prove to be very volatile.

Rumors of Greece leaving the EC, short selling ban in Germany, also being considered by other Eurozone countries, etc. adds to the volatility.

The GBPCHF trade came so bloody close, it hurts. The ask price came to 1.6650, but due to spreads the bid price did not touch, and we missed out by 7 pips. That was an easy 100 pips within 15 minutes. Sad

Levaz

Levaz wrote:Sorry for the delay today, was out at dinner with the family, and just got back.

We are going to trade the pre-established ranges, as we seems to be in a sort of consolidation period for now, barring any stupid moves / remarks by the European politicians (such as the naked-short ban enacted in Germany today - which by the way, cannot be enforced as all a German has to do is place the order from a US/Far East broker to by pass that law!!).

EURGBP short at 0.8582 SL 8620 TP 0.8510

Here is a long shot, as in we have to wait for it to come to us

GBPCHF short at 1.6650 SL 1.6900 TP 1.6000

Levaz
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Re: May 17 - May 23 2010

Post  Levaz on Wed May 19, 2010 1:30 pm

The SNB has confirmed an intervention to the tune of CHF 17 Billion to prop the EURCHF, by means of selling CHF in the market to dilute its value. this brought the EUCHF to 1.4300 and settled around 1.4220, and also brought the GBPCHF to almost our sell point, which was missed by a few pips, only due to spreads.

There is talk of EMU intervention to come as well. This should place us in a good spot to short the Euro. I do not know just how much and when exactly, but it is rumored to come within the next few days - this week or next, - I don't really know. So be wary of shorting the Euro anytime soon - this could also just be a ploy by the EU to scare those shorting the Euro. As you can see, this has had a reasonable impact today, with a nice climb out of the doldrums to the 1.2350 range.

We would like to see it climb up to 1.2900-1.3300 area where we can be comfortable with our shorts. Due to this new Direct Intervention Policy, we should be careful with our shorts, and probably reduce our lots sizes to half, and then add positions where even if these additional positions were closed out at 100 pips loss, we still walk away with an overall profit.

FYI, using 1std. lot sized orders, based on a 10K account, we have already surpassed the 15% monthly target. In fact, we are close to 30% for the month, so far.

Levaz

EDIT (2:50PM EST) - Our GBPCHF order just got filled. This should now be interesting.
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Re: May 17 - May 23 2010

Post  Levaz on Wed May 19, 2010 7:15 pm

With today's intervention, the numbers are a bit skewed, so caution is the nature of the game for the next few days.

The ERUGBP trade - you may want to exit at Break even or a small profit if possible.
We havea large SL setting for the GBPCHF, so we will let that trade simmer for a few days.

We do not know just how much more the SNB will intervene. I heard that they used only 13 Billion out of the tranche allotment of 17 Billion to achieve their interim target of 1.4300 (the previous line in the sane!!), so they may torpedo the market again or at the very least protect their accomplishment more aggressively.

Helping their cause if the unwinding of the AUD carry trades, which is sure to add volatility to the markets. I fear that I may be getting false reversal signals.

Trade the ranges - leave out support/resistance, fibo's, etc. for the time being. EurUSD range - 1.3000 - 1.2160 - play only the extreme edges, just to be safe.

No new trades today. We will watch our GBPCHF trade.

Levaz
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Re: May 17 - May 23 2010

Post  Levaz on Wed May 19, 2010 7:37 pm

BTW, here is the link for trades at Forex Fortress Zulutrade

Please do not share the link with any one outside this forum. This is so that you can follow the trades as I do them. As you can see, I do have some high risk trades as well. Some quasi-martingale trades - quasi as I do not double up, as per martingale rules, I simply average down.

As soon as I have 30 trades, I will make the link private so that ONLY you guys can see the trades.
Please do not add your accounts as "live followers" - it is only for you to learn how to trade.

Note that each trade is 1 std. lot.

Levaz
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Re: May 17 - May 23 2010

Post  Levaz on Thu May 20, 2010 7:19 am

You can collect on the GBPCHF trade if you wish, we are currently approx. 170 pips in profit. Or you can lock in at least 120 pips of profits, and let the trade play out.

Levaz
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May 20 2010

Post  Levaz on Thu May 20, 2010 7:21 pm

I have been advised that a ECB intervention may take place sooner rather than later. So, we have tomorrow and then next week.

If you are wondering why the Euro climbed even though the stock markets tumbled - yes, that had me for a few minutes too. Well, all the carry trades - EURAUD, EURCAD, AUDJPY, etc were being divested. The worst hit was the AUD in all of this, and the CAD was hit considerably too. The EURAUD climbed 1200 pips in TWO DAYS!!! Based on the last time, there should be another 2800 pips still left!! Be careful, if you plan on trading the carry trade pairs. It could bite you in the behind faster than you know.

If you still want to do these trades - here is how I would do it - start small. 0.10 lots (1 mini lot) with a 200 pip SL. Then add a position every 200 pips, while protecting the first position with locking in 100 pips, and the second position's SL set at ONLY 100 pips. Keep doing this every 200 pips. If I am right, you should be a very happy person by next Tuesday/Thursday.

Today's trades:
EURUSD long at 1.2407 SL 1.2340 TP 1.2900
You may need to get in around 1.2445, which is the perceived support. If the Euro does pick us up at 1.2407, then there is a good chance that we may get stopped out before the move up.

EURGBP long at 0.8640 SL 0.8580 TP .8750
This is a double EUR long trade, so you may only want to pick one of the two - EURUSD or EURGBP.

Levaz
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Re: May 17 - May 23 2010

Post  Levaz on Fri May 21, 2010 7:00 am

We expect ECB again, in more force after close of Europe today, along with the passing of the USD 1 Trillion bail-out by the German lower house. We would want to short the market AFTER this move is complete.

So either today (don't want to keep open trades over the weekend) or Monday.

Levaz
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Re: May 17 - May 23 2010

Post  Levaz on Fri May 21, 2010 8:38 am

I have decided to take a chance on the ECB intervention. I have just opened the following order

long at 1.2520 with a SL at 1.2450 and TP at 1.3300

I also have the following pending orders:

EURUSD long at 1.2600 SL 1.2450 TP 1.3300
EURUSD long at 1.2700 SL 1.2450 TP 1.3300

I may add more positions once I see what happens around the 1.2900 area.
Once the additional orders are picked up, move the exiting SL to 100 pips below the current prices.
So when 1.2600 picks up, the SL on my first order will move to 1.2500
When 1.2700 picks up, then both my previous orders will have the SL moved to 1.2600.

This is extremely risky, as there will be a lot of open positions. I may consider closing them out at 3:50 -3:59PM today - just before market closes.

This is because Asia is doing its own thing, and not following the European agenda. The Asian traders are doing the right thing (IMHO) and shorting everything in sight.

Levaz
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Re: May 17 - May 23 2010

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