Sept 19 - 24, 2010

Today, we watch the markets reaction to last weeks interventions, and also look for possible indications of further interventions. There are those that think the BoJ is faring much better then the SNB even though it is eventually a lost cause. There are opinions in the market that the BoJ may cause the market to push the USDJPY as high as 95.00 by the years end.

If this is the case, then we want to be in on these trades, but need to pick our entries properly.

We have the following opportunities, if they arise.

GBPUSD long at 1.5510 SL 1.5450 TP 1.5750
EURUSD long at 1.2925 SL 1.2890 TP 1.3250

I am considering an long entry on ERUCHF at 1.3050 level with a stop just under 1.3000 - may be 25 - 75 pips below with a profit target of 1.4000

Levaz

Levaz wrote:GBPUSD long at 1.5510 SL 1.5450 TP 1.5750
EURUSD long at 1.2925 SL 1.2890 TP 1.3250

Neither of our orders were picked up, I am still holding out with the same trades.

I am doing the same with the EURCHF for now, i.e., waiting to be picked up.

Levaz

Levaz wrote:GBPUSD long at 1.5510 SL 1.5450 TP 1.5750

Order picked up, went as high as 1.5643 and currently in profit approx. 101 pips. I will advise you of where to move your SL, if at all, later tonight.

EURUSD long at 1.2925 SL 1.2890 TP 1.3250

Order not picked up. We will have to abandon this one.

Levaz

Levaz wrote:GBPUSD long at 1.5510 SL 1.5450 TP 1.5750

Move Stop loss to 1.5558. Expected high for the next 24 hours is 1.5690. our preliminary target will be 1.5750, but we will see if this could possibly take us to 1.5835-1.5885 range before a retrace.

Levaz


Update - Sept 22 - We have been as high as 1.5714, but have been contained by the 400 DMA, however, we are hanging on (just under or around) the 400 Daily Moving Average which increases the probabilities that it will break through to the upside. Our major concern now is IF there will be a retrace back to 1.5550 before the next major move.

Levaz wrote:GBPUSD long at 1.5510 SL 1.5450 TP 1.5750

Move your Stop loss to 1.5595. Expected high for the next 24 hours is 1.5720. Our preliminary target is still 1.5750.

The following trade has no real justification, except that I am waiting for another intervention from the BoJ

USDJPY long at 85.00 SL 84.80 TP 87.50

You could simply aim for 100 pips if you want. The point is that BoJ barely spend 30 -40 Billion on the last move. Their typical intervention spans several months and around 300 - 400 Billion. Remember that Japan is the only other Cash rich nation in the G-20. All other nations are strapped for Cash and are heavily in debt. It is a good risk:reward, so why not?

Levaz

Update - Sept 23 2010 11AM - We have been as high as 1.5740 and now sit around 1.5715. We have about 205 pips, with 85 pips of profits locked. You have several options - move your Stop loss to protect 140 pips (move stop loss to 1.5650). You can collect your profits (200+ pips). Or we can hold on and see how far this goes.

Sorry for the delayed post tonight, i just got back from a job site.

As far as our GBPUSD trade, we have a possible reversal tomorrow, so leave the SL at 1.5650 or take your profits for now. The pair currently sits at 1.5687, so that would be 177 pips which is reasonably good.

The expected range for tomorrow is 1.5590 - 1.5765.

Levaz

Update - Sept 24, 2010 - Our trade has been as high as 1.5842 and currently sits at 1.5808. We can move our Stop loss to 1.5750, which locks in 240 pips. Once again, you have several options.
If you do not want to keep the trade open over the weekend, you can close it now for 290 pips.
Or move your SL to 1.5750 and see what happens next week.
Or you can close half of your trade fora profit of 290 pips, and move your SL to 1.5750 and play the balance of the trade for next week.