Sept 26 - Oct 1, 2010

We still have our GBPUSD in play. USD weakness seems to be the play of the month. Our trade has approx. 240 pips locked in profit, so we are good for now.

Expected range for tomorrow is 1.5750 - 1.5900. We leave all our settings as is.

Meanwhile, we could try to get in on the EURUSD train as well, although, this is also playing on the USD weakness implied by promises of further QE measures by the Fed.

EURUSD long at 1.3425 SL 1.3350 TP 1.3675

Levaz

We seem to have come upon a consolidation area (or a possible retrace to the 15 DSMA) - we will find out shortly. In the interim, we will leave our GBPUSD trade as is, locking in the 240 pips of profits. The short, medium and long term indicators are slowing, but still showing a potential upward movement, so we will wait it out.

The EURUSD trade came close, but my orders were not picked up as yet due to the spread.
I would revise the order to go long at 1.3300 SL 1.3250 TP 1.3550

If you feel aggressive, you can enter at 1.3378 with a 100 pip hard stop at 1.3278

Levaz

I have decided to close my GBPUSD trade at 1.5848 for a profit of 338 pips which is a reasonable score.

Our revised EURUSD entry missed the mark by quite a bit.

Levaz

It may not be a good idea to short any Yen pair while the BoJ is on the prowl, and fully loaded at that. However, with China shortly to be named a "currency manipulator", I am guessing the US has brought pressure to bear on Japan to hold off for the time being. Whether this will have any affect on the BoJ decision, to intervene or not, is yet to be seen.

Anyway, here is the trade.

GBPJPY short 132.90 SL 133.35 TP 130.00

The risk to reward is pretty generous, so you may want to even just take 100 pips and get out or simply lock in 50 or 100 pips as soon as you possibly can.

Levaz

Update - Sept 29 2010 - We have already achieved the 100 pip target. You have two options - collect the 100 pips profit or move your SL to Break-even and see what happens. I am moving my SL to break-even.

Levaz wrote:GBPJPY short 132.90 SL 133.35 TP 130.00

Our order is in play. For tomorrow, we have an expected range of 131.50 - 132.80. We will maintain our Stop loss at break even.

Meanwhile, this is another long shot, but we have the following order:

EURUSD long at 1.3495 SL 1.3350 TP 1.3750

I say "long shot" because the pair may not come down to where we are waiting, but that is a safe point to enter EURUSD longs. We have strong support at 1.3450 and we are allowing another 100 pips from that point.

Levaz

Update - Sept 30, 2010 - The EURUSD may still come to get us, but let us not chase the pair. We sit tight and wait for it to come to us.
Our GBPJPY is faring well, so far. It came pretty close to our estimated high, but spared us by 9 pips, and subsequently went to test the estimated low. We will maintain our SL at Break even for now. If you want, you may move your SL to lock in about 50 pips of profit, but I would prefer to keep my SL above the 132.50 area. This pair is an extremely volatile pair, so we can expect a lot of movement under normal circumstances. As i write the update, we are at 150 pips in profit.

Levaz wrote:GBPJPY short 132.90 SL 133.35 TP 130.00

We will stick to our trade. Move the SL to 132.50 if your have not already locked in 100 pips. I want to give it room, just in case, and do not want to be stopped out too early.

The estimated range for tomorrow is 130.30 - 131.95. The indicators show that there should be more downward movement, but I keep mentioning that this particular pair is extremely volatile.

While I do not recommend this for you guys, I am going to double up. I have another order as under:
GBPJPY short at 131.50 SL 132.50 TP 130.00

If my second order gets stopped out, then my net loss is only 60 pips. That is a reasonable risk:reward ratio for me IF both orders reach their target. Also, I may not allow the trades to close at 130.00 but I will be able to better gauge that towards end of day tomorrow.

Levaz