June 6 2010 - June 11 2010

We expect more of the same from last week. It appears that we are faced with a dilemma no matter which path is chosen. As a result of the GFC, the politicians opened the flood gates to wild spending in the name of reviving the economy. Now the markets are uncertain that these sovereigns can afford to pay for all that spending. These politicians are now faced with two choices - continue spending and create hyper inflation or curtail the spending and face negative growth. Either way is a loss - with the latter option allowing them room to blame the inevitable bankruptcy on some slobs who come to power later in the game. So guess, which one they are picking - option 2 of course!

This weeks trades:
EURUSD short at 1.2050 SL 1.2150 TP 1.1905

You may want to be a little careful here, as the EURJPY is almost at recent lows, and a bounce back there could take out our trade. We are within 100 pips of the recent low of 108.81 on May 25th 2010.

If you have not closed the previous trades, we stick our GBPCHF and GBPUSD trades.

We will keep an eye for a bounce on the GBPUSD from 1.4250 area


Levaz

Our EURUSD trade did not come close to being picked up, but we had to play it safe due the possibility of short covering in EURAUD and EURCAD. If you will see those charts, they did climb some. And that carries over as strength against the EURUSD pairing - but that is the problem with the risk-on / risk-off scenario that we are in right now.

We still hang on to our GBPCHF and GBPUSD trades.

Here is one that you guys may not really like, but it is out there so ...

EURJPY short at 111.00 SL 112.50 TP 109.00

There is an off chance that the rally might run out of steam at 110.10, but chances are high that the pair will come back to the median line at the 111.00 mark

Levaz

Here is another one for today:

GBPJPY short at 133.47 SL 134.00 TP 131.00

The 200sMA is sitting right on 133.00 but these MA are a bit flexible when it comes to setting support / resistance, so we give it some room to the nearest half round (i.e., 50) and place a little lower with the expectation that it will cross that by 2 - 15 pips and get us into a trade.

Levaz

Our two trades are doing quite well and we are closing in on the TP.

GBPCHF short at 1.6941 SL 1.7041 TP 1.6500
GBPUSD short at 1.4650 SL 1.4750 TP 1.4250

We got into another GBPJPY trade at slightly below the preferred entry price. We sold at 133.34 and are currently sitting at 132.15 after going as low donkey 131.27.

GBPCHF sits at 1.6674, just over 250 pips
GBPUSD is currently at 1.4420, just over 120 pips

We will let the trades play out to the TP. Lock in at least 100 pips on the GBPCHF, about 20 pips on the GBPUSD and move the SL to Break even on the GBPJPY trade (I moved my stop loss to 133.00 to lock in 34 pips)

Levaz

Here is what we will be looking for in the near future:

Once again, we have high expectations that the EURUSD will touch the 1.2100 area before it continues on the down trend.

We also have an excellent opposing trade in the USDCHF, which has been sitting just under the 23% fibo line for a full week. I would like to see it retrace to the 1.0500 (should be 1.1500)area or lower yet to 1.0400-1.0450 (EDIT-should be 1.1400-1.1450) where we would go long and ride it all the way to 1.2250, if we are on the correct wave.

Levaz

EDIT - Thank you to Ruby for bringing that clerical error to my attention. Sorry about that typo guys. We have seen some of that retrace today, but there should be a little more, so we may aim a little lower yet, I will keep you posted

Levaz wrote:
GBPCHF short at 1.6941 SL 1.7041 TP 1.6500
GBPUSD short at 1.4650 SL 1.4750 TP 1.4250
GBPJPY short at 133.34 SL 134 TP 131.00

GBPCHF sits at 1.6580 with a low of 1.6553, just over 360 pips
GBPUSD is currently at 1.4360, just at 190 pips
GBPJPY has hit the target of 131.00 for a total of 247 pips
PLUS the previous GBPJPY trade that netted us 300 pips.

If you choose to collect now, this months tally will be approx. 1100 pips.
Or you can still wait for TP, but now trail all open orders by 100 pips (or 50 pips if you want).


Levaz

No trades for today. We are going to wait and BE READY for our EURUSD and USDCHF trades.

We are looking to short EURUSD at 1.2100 - 1.2175 area. Preferably AFTER it has passed the mark and we get in when it is on the way down.

For the USDCHF, which is really an opposing trade, we are looking for 1.1250 ideally, but may have to be ready at 1.1350 area too! We may expect it to stop and reverse at 1.1500, so we have to be on our toes and keep an eye on the news that comes out of Europe and then take action accordingly. Best source is Reuters.com for up to date info. They cost aq pretty penny to subscribe, so see if you can get the free feeds.

Be patient, do not get trigger happy.

Levaz

Update on the trades that we are waiting for - short EURUSD and long USDCHF - market seems to agree with us, so we will wait for our entry points. We may adjust the entry points as the pairs progress and they demonstrate their strength (or lack of it) when they approach our desired entries.

For today, we see a possible counter trend trade, but bear in mind that the NY exchanges closed lower than yesterday, and Asia just might take this as a sign to kill our pairs.

GBPUSD long at 1.4500 SL 1.4400 TP 1.4625

Note that my entry will be a little lower at 1.4450 with SL at 1.4400 and TP at 1.4650
I am willing to risk not having my trade picked up just in case Asia does over-react to the very slight lower closing of the NY Bourses.

We also have this trade with the same reasoning as above

GBPJPY long at 132.50 SL 131.50 TP 134.12

I will not be trading this one, as I will be taking the GBPUSD trade - doing a Yen trade would amount to doubling up, so I will not. But if I were, I would play once again on the side of caution and set my entry to 132.10 keeping the SL and TP the same. The GBPJPY moves quite a bit, so there is a good chance that it will come to the 400sMA which is so close to the 50sMA and the 300sMA.

If you are awake to watch the markets, then you have the best possibilities of getting a good entry. Once again, be patient and don't be too anxious to get into a trade. We are well ahead for the month, so there is no need to take unnecessary risks.

Levaz

Those of you that signed up with TadawulFX and are actively trading there will be happy to know that they are offering FREE SIGNALS directly to your MT4 platform. They will come in the <<NEWS>> tab, estimated 7 times a day for the majors.

Their analysts are pretty good, at least form what I have read in the past with the market outlook. They have been more right than wrong. If you are going to use them, TEST THEM on a demo account first. OR at the very least, paper trade the signals. DO NOT START WITH A LIVE ACCOUNT - Get a gauge of their performance and which pairs they seem to have a good insight for - some analysts will be much better than others.

Levaz

We barely missed the GBPUSD trade by about 10 pips, but it is better to play safe once we are ahead than stick our necks out for a few pips.
The GBPJPY trade was picked up, and we are currently approx. 50 pips ahead from a peak of approx. 110 pips.
Lock in at least 10 pips on the GBPJPY trade. If we do get closed during the day, we just may have a better entry once I can crunch the end of day numbers.

Levaz

Levaz wrote:
GBPUSD long at 1.4500 SL 1.4400 TP 1.4625
GBPJPY long at 132.50 SL 131.50 TP 134.12

PS - the moving averages are closing in on our anticipated EURUSD and USDCHF trades, we may get our trades picked for tomorrow - let us see.

Our EURUSD is almost at 1.2150, we may have to jump in soon, as is the case with the USDCHF.

If you guys are going to do both trades (not recommended, pick only one), then use 50% of your normal order size.

Levaz

Levaz wrote:No trades for today. We are going to wait and BE READY for our EURUSD and USDCHF trades.

We are looking to short EURUSD at 1.2100 - 1.2175 area. Preferably AFTER it has passed the mark and we get in when it is on the way down.

For the USDCHF, which is really an opposing trade, we are looking for 1.1250 ideally, but may have to be ready at 1.1350 area too! We may expect it to stop and reverse at 1.1500, so we have to be on our toes and keep an eye on the news that comes out of Europe and then take action accordingly. Best source is Reuters.com for up to date info. They cost aq pretty penny to subscribe, so see if you can get the free feeds.

Be patient, do not get trigger happy.

Levaz

This is IT guys, we place our orders today.

EURUSD short at 1.2140 SL 1.2220 TP 1.1850

Unless, we are facing a trend reversal, I am expecting it to hit the Daily 25sMA which is at 1.2299 as of today and moving down (so about 1.2200 by tomorrow). Perhaps, attempt a crossing of the 1.2200 mark, but we have two factors in our favor - tomorrow is what is now become a new tradition - "risk-off" Friday, and we have market news releases coming from the US which are high impact news.

If the pair does manage to break 1.2200, then we are looking at 1.2300 top for the near term, and a possible 1.2500 and even an outside probability of 1.2900. We are going to stick to the long term down trend and treat this comeback as a retrace to the trend lines before being shot down again.

We also have the following outstanding from before and we are following the same strategy of the long term trends in light of the current market conditions.

EURJPY short at 111.50 SL 112.50 TP 108.00
USDCHF long 1.1350 SL 1.1250 TP 1.1900
GBPCHF short at 1.6850 SL 1.6950 TP 1.6550
GBPCAD short at 1.5185 SL 1.5250 TP 1.4850
GBPUSD short at 1.4750 SL 1.4820 TP 1.4500

Please do not take ALL the trades as it will be huge if we are wrong about our calculations.

Make sure that the TOTAL risk to your account between all trades does not exceed 3 - 4%.
So if you are going to pick two trades, than normal 2% per trade.
If you pick 3, then reduce your lot sizes by 30% on your normal trade.
If you pick 4, then 4 trades at 50% of your normal lot sizes.

Good luck

Levaz

Levaz wrote:
EURUSD short at 1.2140 SL 1.2220 TP 1.1850
EURJPY short at 111.50 SL 112.50 TP 108.00
USDCHF long 1.1350 SL 1.1250 TP 1.1900
GBPCHF short at 1.6850 SL 1.6950 TP 1.6550
GBPCAD short at 1.5185 SL 1.5250 TP 1.4850
GBPUSD short at 1.4750 SL 1.4820 TP 1.4500

EURUSD - in trade, +13 pips
EURJPY - trade not picked up yet, missed by 13 pips, high of 111.37
USDCHF - trade missed by 54 pips, low of 1.1404
GBPCHF - in trade, currently up 85 pips
GBPCAD - stopped out, our SL was too tight
GBPUSD - in trade, currently at 125 pips

In all we are 200+ pips and have a loss of 40 pips on one trade, so net 150+ pips.

There is news at 8:30AM EST and 9:55AM EST, which should push our profits higher.

You can move your SL to break even on the GBP trades IF you are concerned about the news releases.

Levaz

EURUSD - in trade, +54 pips
GBPCHF - in trade, currently up 123 pips
GBPUSD - in trade, currently at 200 pips

If you are happy with that, then close your trade and we have 337 pips for today accounting for the 40 pip loss on the GBPCAD.

There is definite potential for more down side on all pairs though!

This takes our June tally to 1600 pips, so we can sit back and enjoy the World Cup Football!!!

Levaz

Hi guys,

Try not to keep positions open on the weekend. If you have not already closed the trades, have a look at the status around 12:10pm EST and close them. the markets have had a tendency to make drastic moves in the last hours of trading, and even if this may be in our favor, we do not want to risk being in trade if it works against us.

Levaz